The article was published in Analisi Difesa on November 28, 2023.

The recent large-scale hostilities that began after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack call for reflection on why a regional security structure is lacking in the Middle East and North Africa region. This article will attempt to analyse- in a contained but comprehensive dimension- the attempts at integration and their successes, as well as the many failures- to warn about the persistent misalignment between the actions of the regional political class and the aspirations and sentiments of the population.

The relative myth of Middle Eastern uniqueness.

It has been over forty years since Edward Said’s Orientalism was published., but a shared understanding of ideas’ role in Middle East politics is often misdirected. There is an unwavering fascination for scholars, especially those in international relations, to see the Middle East as exceptional, often influenced by their ingrained Westfalian sensitivity. This perceived uniqueness is often attributed to many factors, such as a history of colonization, marked interference by foreign powers, a significant focus on oil production, limited state development, an unusual propensity for conflict, and, in particular, a common linguistic, religious, and cultural background. However, this approach, which is so focused on forming collective identities, lends itself only partially to explaining current developments.

Lights and shadows of regional initiatives in the Middle East and North Africa.

During the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, efforts to establish collective security arrangements have historically been challenging to achieve. Lack of trust among regional states, differing views on threats, and conflicting national interests have all played a role in the unsuccessful attempts to establish a comprehensive security framework for the region. Russia, Iran and the United States have proposed to promote cooperation in the Gulf. However, these initiatives have struggled to gain significant support from Persian Gulf nations or the international community.

The need for economic security and resilience also drives minilateral diplomacy in the region. In the past decade, twelve of the sixteen agreements signed in the Middle East have focused on financial issues. The New Levant initiative, established by Egypt, Jordan and Iraq in March 2019, aimed to promote economic integration, but faced challenges. While countries have made great strides in connecting their power grids, other projects, such as the Basra-Aqaba oil pipeline, have been hampered by political and financial obstacles, security concerns, and interference from outside actors. These problems, budget constraints, and bureaucratic inefficiencies have slowed progress in implementing the initiative.

The minilateral agreements have struggled even in cases where security, fiscal capacity and government efficiency are minor obstacles to trade and investment. In 2021, India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United States established I2U2 to promote high-quality, sustainable investments among partner countries. Despite ambitious announcements, such as the launch of a new joint venture in the space sector and the creation of the India-Middle East food corridor which involved $2 billion of Emirati investment in food parks in India, tangible results have not materialized. The delay in UAE investment in India’s agricultural sector is partly attributed to UAE concerns over India’s growing food protectionism, as The Essential Commodities Act grants Indian authorities greater flexibility in imposing export bans on agricultural products, thus posing a greater risk to investments in food parks.

Regionalism in the Middle East and North Africa.

Despite the wealth of regionally shared cultural, social, and religious referents and the plethora of regional organizations and debates surrounding their status and evolution, the region has been portrayed as a “region without regionalism” and the interaction between these two dimensions remains “ambiguous at best.” That is, while one would expect regionalization to be positively correlated with processes of regionalism, the opposite seems to have occurred in the MENA region. Morten Valbjørn argues that high interpenetration on social, cultural and religious levels seems to have slowed down the processes of institutional integration.

Regionalization is an organic, bottom-up, internal process involving various non-state entities organized in formal and informal networks. This process focuses on vital cultural, political and social aspects. On the other hand, regionalism is a government-led integration process in which formal regional institutions and organizations are created and maintained, mainly in economy and security.

Examples of regionalization include the pan-Arab secular revolutionary ideals of the 1950s and 1960s, the reverberation of political Islam in the 1980s, and, since the Arab uprisings of 2011, the spread of new revolutionary democratic norms. As a result, the region has no shortage of social and conceptual referents, which move reasonably quickly across national borders, becoming sources of allegiance and normative frameworks for intra-regional social and political mobilization.

Leaders in the Middle East and North Africa are now tying their personal power and credibility to the realization of tangible economic progress and stability. This motivates the growing incentives for a more collaborative foreign policy. The global challenges we face today, such as climate change, food security, and maritime security, all have a cross-border nature, making regional cooperation a requirement rather than a privilege.

However, the emergence of positive indications does not guarantee that regional tension reduction will prevail. Authoritarian, transactional and competitive security visions still dominate among regional policymakers. In simpler terms, policymakers and other key players must seize this moment of de-escalation before regional dynamics change again.

The Gulf Cooperation Council: a first success.

The establishment of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1981 can be linked to three significant events: the ouster of the Shah from Iran in 1979 by a broad ideological alliance quickly grasped by a revolutionary Islamic expansionist doctrine; the ensuing war between Iran and Iraq-two ambitious revolutionary regimes embroiled in a decades-long conflict; and the increased sense of importance and independence in foreign policy among the Gulf nations. partly attributed to oil manna. The emergence of the GCC was partly a reaction to the growing threat from post-revolution Iran, but also an effort to create a Gulf political alternative to the Arab League, at a time when the Gulf nations, buoyed by their improved fiscal capabilities, feared becoming the financiers of the region’s recovery after the upheavals, without being recognized as legitimate political actors.

Projects focused on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have demonstrated greater practicality than broader regional collaborations. The reason is that starting with a group of states with shared viewpoints minimizes complications that might arise in larger forums where consensus might be harder to achieve. With The political epicenter of the Middle East that has shifted to the Gulf over the past decade, focus on this subregion is in line with regional trends. The GCC platform has successfully incorporated states outside the subregion, such as Egypt and Jordan, which share common interests on certain issues. It has also proved helpful in realigning Iraq’s foreign policy with the mutual interests of its Arab neighbors. Moreover, Iran’s participation in a GCC+2 format is in line with its longstanding preference for regional dialogues that exclude outside powers such as the United States and Israel within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

The quest for security is the real reason for the success of the GCC.

Rather than institutionally embodying specific social, cultural or religious norms, Gulf regionalism has mostly been driven by perceptions of insecurity, with institutional integration within the Arab Gulf seen as better protection than that offered by the main existing Arab regional organization, the Arab League.

Gulf regionalism, rather than being a reflection of specific social, cultural or religious norms, is predominantly influenced by perceptions of insecurity. This suggests that the integration of the Arab Gulf is considered a superior form of protection to the Arab League, the main existing Arab regional organization. This focus on security as a key factor in regionalism underscores the complex dynamics and priorities that drive the Gulf’s approach to integration and cooperation.

The establishment of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) also indicates the intention of the Gulf nations to exercise their independence in foreign policy and position themselves as substantial political entities in the region. This transition from financial benefactors to political participants shows the changing priorities and incentives driving Gulf regionalism. As a result, the GCC has emerged as a crucial source of loyalty and normative structures for social and political activism within the region.

Mitigating Saudi attempts at hegemony.

While the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has strived to establish itself as the main platform for defense policy in the Gulf region, it has faced challenges due to the bilateral extension of the U.S. security umbrella to the Gulf countries, rather than through regional cooperation. In contrast, some smaller Gulf nations, particularly Oman, have opposed the growing integration efforts led by Saudi Arabia following the Arab uprisings of 2011. This resistance is evident in initiatives such as King Abdullah’s proposal for a closer “Gulf Union” and the Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal’s plan for an integrated regional military and security policy, both of which were presented to the GCC summits.

The Arab Spring in the perspective of the GCC.

The uprisings in Bahrain and the eastern Saudi province. have not only caused concern in Riyadh, but also within the GCC. Iran’s perceived influence on Shiite populations in both countries initially led to greater unity between the monarchies, resulting in 2011 military intervention in Bahrain, l’invitation extended to the Moroccan and Jordanian monarchies to join the GCC and The signing of the joint security agreement in November 2012 between the interior ministers of the GCC+2 (Jordan and Morocco). This agreement, supposedly aimed at combating terrorism, facilitated cross-regional cooperation among Sunni monarchies to suppress internal dissent. With the successes Ennahda’s initial election in Tunisia and of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the focus shifted from the security of the counterrevolutionary regime to a new concern. The potential insecurity of the regime was now influenced both by revolutionary social forces in the region and by the role of Islamist political actors who were benefiting from these post-revolutionary developments.

The Abrahamic Accords: a promising and risky leap forward.

Much has changed in the Middle East since the historic Abrahamic Accords 2020. Bahrain and the UAE have worked quickly and intentionally to normalize relations with Israel, promoting a “warm peace” with the Jewish state. With Jordan, Egypt and Morocco, nearly a third of Arab nations have chosen peace with Israel, breaking a long-standing taboo and generating favorable regional momentum. As a result, this enhanced regional atmosphere has also prompted other Arab states, including those without official diplomatic relations and technically still in a state of conflict with Israel, to engage, albeit discreetly.

The Israeli peace process.

A time map of the peace treaties Israel has concluded with some Arab states.

The Negev Forum: the triumph of pragmatism.

Negev Forum of 2022 represented the beginning of a pragmatic policy on technical and low-conflict issues. Six working groups were formed in the areas of education, energy, food and water security, health, safety and tourism, with the aim of promoting interregional collaboration. These groups also aim to improve living conditions in the Palestinian Territories through coordinated efforts.

Regionalism in the MENA region.

A logical map of alliances in the Middle East and North Africa.

In June 2022, members of the Negev Forum met in Bahrain to lay the groundwork for future discussions and collaborations, agreeing to meet three times a year. Their first meeting in 2023 took place in Abu Dhabi, where they began planning a meeting in Morocco in March 2023, which was delayed twice due to political unrest over Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank. These meetings gained Track 2 support from the Atlantic Council and other organizations.

A brake on cooperation.

However, the Negev Forum faces several regional obstacles. Some Gulf states perceive the participants as having the shared goal of containing Iran’s expansionist aspirations, raising concerns about potential Iranian attacks on Gulf Arab nations. There is also a belief that the forum is overly exclusive and serves primarily to strengthen Israel’s regional integration, a move seen by many in the Middle East as detrimental to Palestinian peace. Without progress in the Palestinian peace process, achieving lasting regional cooperation and further normalization, including with Saudi Arabia, becomes increasingly difficult. These political obstacles could hinder the Negev Forum, reducing it to sporadic meetings and causing broader regional problems and tensions. Moreover, the fact that the United States is a signatory to the forum could limit its regional legitimacy and global appeal, as it could be perceived primarily as an American effort.

Conclusion: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains the “Elephant in the room.”

The Middle East and North Africa region has made progress in the search for regional stability. The rapprochement with Israel by some non-marginal actors marked a new phase of pragmatic politics that follows, in some respects, the embryonic phase of European cooperation: Jean Monnet himself declared that, in a forum with different sensitivities and backgrounds, dealing with technical matters between leaderships would be the best way to begin a supranational integrative process.

The parallels with European integration end there.
The Middle Eastern and North African region suffers from a participatory deficit
far wider than that experienced in Europe
, and leadership should take into account the moods and feelings of populations, which are delineated both on an ideal-cultural basis and in modern terms as class conflict.

The Abraham Agreements, launched in 2020 between Bahrain, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (later joined by Morocco and Sudan), as well as the 2022 Negev Forum, have manifested themselves as significant steps toward promoting peace and facilitating Israel’s regional integration. However,
agreements have run into obstacles because of the unfavorable attitudes of the Arab nations involved
, a problem likely exacerbated by Hamas’ assault on Israel in 2023. These challenges have prevented the creation of strong interpersonal connections as outlined in the agreement. The clash between Hamas and Israel has dispelled any illusions that Israel can pursue regional political and economic integration without addressing Palestinian issues.

The region has experienced profound unifying effects due to the transformative movements of pan-Arabism and pan-Islamism, blurring the often assumed demarcation between state and society in modern or pre-modern contexts.
Grasping the importance of ideologies requires understanding changes in state-society relations.
This understanding is critical to deciphering the rise and fall of specific ideological systems and their correlation with conceptual and material components. The spread of norms regionally and globally transcends mere interstate interactions. As a result, state actors should address public apprehensions to ensure both internal and external stability during a potentially crucial period.